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The Willis Report

News/Business. Host Gerri Willis.

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Romney 27, Us 13, America 13, Fema 12, New York 10, Sandy 10, Barack Obama 7, Obama 7, Israel 6, New York City 5, Tucker 5, John 5, Staten Island 4, Colorado 4, Ho 4, Manhattan 4, U.s. 3, Virginia 3, Massachusetts 3, Gallup 3,
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  FOX Business    The Willis Report    News/Business.  
   Host Gerri Willis.  

    November 4, 2012
    4:00 - 6:00am EST  

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gerri: hello, everybody, i am gerri willis. tonight mayor michael bloomberg forced to flip-flop backing away from his decision to allow the new york city marathon to proceed just six days after the biggest and most instructive storm in the northeast in 74 years. bloomberg had said a mathon would bring new yorkers back together and was importance to the city's economy added $370 million for runners and race fans. but proceeding to new york city boroughs sunday when many of them have been declared disaster areas, homes destroyed,
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boardwalks missing, residents without food, power or water was a repulsive idea to some. >> no one else has been here. i have not heard from fema, the coast guard, no one. it is startling. >> very angry and fed up. what are we, is this america? i don't know. i don't know. i don't like it. we are going downhill. >> i came here four or five years ago, expected we came here for a better life, opportunity, and this is what we come from. this is ridiculous. not how it is supposed to be. gerri: it wasn't just residents. take a look at the front page of "the new york post." an abuse of power, there were two generators being used for the marathon to power the media
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tent. a third backup generator that wasn't being used. for more on this, joined by adam shapiro in staten island where he has been porting all day long, and editor-in-chief of runner's world which follows all of this. i will start with you, what has been the response from people you have been talking to all day long about this idea of having a marathon in the wake of sandy? >> people wanted it canceled. when it was announced it was being canceled i asked police officers what they felt about it and they responded in unison "good." now a girl we spoke to earlier, you got choked up, you're very emotional that the marathon would be run. what is your reaction? >> i am relieved. the right people are here taking care of what needs to be focused on witches for the city and staten island who is the unknn borough.
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>> since it isnown that was heard. the smallest voice was the largest today. what would you say to michael bloomberg about the decision to cancel? >> thank you. take care much because now the officials can pay attention to what needs to be done. the cleanup and get people back and make a new staten island. >> really quick, what the people need now, they need cleaning supplies, gloves to protect their hands as they cleanup, if you're going to make donations people have been driving down here droppg stuff off, that is the kind of stuff they need now. gerri: what is the gas situation now? >> we stay put where we are in the beach area to conserve our fuel. there are gas stations, we should point out not all of staten island, 75% of staten island doesn't have any damage. the higher elevations it is such
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a cold, cloudy day and some places electricity has come back and other places they are still waiting. we did not see any lines at the stations. they had gas because we were trying to save our gas. gerri: a lot of people without gas worried about getting it. thank you for your help, stay put if you could. next i want to read a quote from michael bloomberg decided to cancel the marathon. cannot allow a controversy over an athletic event even one as meaningful as this to distract attention away from getting our city back on track. we want to turn now to david willey, you're rig in the middle of this controversy. so many folks in the new york borough's like staten island which has been so hard hit, new jersey where they're still evacuating residents from hoboken, such a bad ideasent the wrong message about priorities to have this event.
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how do you respond? >> all along i have deferred to the mayor's judgment and the city's decision to hold this race. it was a difficult situation. when the decision was made to hold the race i really did believe those who were here had an opportunity to do a lot of good for the city. gerri: how so? >> to personify resilience and moving on, but more importantly to raise a lot of money. money is needed for the rescue effort, of course. gerri: let me mention this. you say raise money, and apparently raising some $370 million as we said a four. the new york city economy on an average day can raise $4 billion. it pales in comparison. is this a time to be thinking about money when people need
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help just getting food, getting fresh water? at the end of the day you may not be running this particular marathon but what would it feel like as a runner to be running in staten island when all around you everything is in disarray? >> understand all the criticism and all the hurt and anger that is out there. every runner who is here to run understands and is heartbroken. second of all people would not be running past destruction. staten island is the beginning. this goes right there. gerri: it is all cleaned up right where the runners would have been which is another frustration. like there were two new york's. for those doing okay and the staten island for the middle income new yorkers who were suffering. i think that was the nexus of the frustration right there. >> totally understand. not taking away from anybody's
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pain or complaints. gerri: was this the right decision? >> it was a very hard decision one way or another. the mayor was damned if he did, damned if he didn't be honest with you. i do think some good would have come from the marathon. gerri: new yorkers love the marathon but this time around they had some questions. you have been out there all day, talking to people all day really doing great work, lots of questions abou the marathon, what else have people told you about what they're experiencing today and their feelings about the cancellation of the marathon? >> when people say they are happy, they are pleased the marathon has been canceled, it isn't because they don't like the marathon. we are only three days out of this tragedy, just passed us on tuesday in these people kept
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bringing up the issue they hurt others say we need to move forward and show we are resilient, but they haven't moved out of the tragedy. look at this, this is still here. the marathon won't run in staten island but it would've gone through parts of manhattan were 200,000 of our fellow new yorkers still don't have electricity and not as though you just don't have electricity. that means you don't have water going to be apartments with a need for sanitation issues and they're trapped in their apartment if they are elderly or somehow disabled and cannot get down from the department, these are serious issues. people are pointing out to say we have to move on and be replayed and is not realistic. gerri: i can be resilient after i have had dinner basically for me. thank you guys for coming in and talking about your views on this. thank you so much. thanks to the reporters who have been out covering this story.
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covering the mayor's change of heart today, and everybody else covering this story, great job. a lot of people turn to social media today to let their vois be heard and let me tell you it was white hot even though the term marathon is trending on twitter. scott stringer earlier today said let's reschedule the marathon and focus all rources on helping the neighbors from staten island, breezy point and lower manhattan recover. people are freezing, starving, but by all means let's use the nyc resources to watch people run around the city. one group has launched a facebook page called cancel the 2012 nyc marathon. but the same number of people who run the marathon. according to the new york marathon's website, it is now being dubbed a race for recovery, that is what they said
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earlr today before the cancellation. they have pledged a lot of money to go to helping new york city recover. meanwhile the death toll now climbing past 100 in new york, more subway and rail lines are opening up to date for commuters including the most used entrances into the city, the holland tunnel. electricity should be restored by midnight to customers in manhattan but it could be weeks. further parts of new york state and new jersey one of the state's biggest businesses opening its doors, governor chris christie issued an order today we opening atlantic city's 12 casinos. another day of lining up for hours at gas stations struggling to stay supplied. estimated 60% of stations in new jersey are shot 60%, 70% on long island. more on that still to come, but first, staten island across new york harbor from lower manhattan is home to half a million people.
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many blue-collar workers whose families have lived there for generations and many who say they have been forgotten including my next guest, representing the borough of staten island. always good to see you. what kind of recovery, rescue operations are you seeing. are you happier today than you were last night? >> we absolutely are. the outpouring of contributions from all over the country and from neighbors with clothes and food have been incredible and wanwewant to say we thank you vy much for all of the volunteers who have been contributing by just left secretary napolitano. the red cross, they are in full gear now. fema on the ground, things are starting to happen. gerri: last night you said you were not happy with the response. now i hear you say we are
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getting help and i'm happy to see the response i am getting. >> absolutely, it is night and day. a big change from yesterday. today the calvary has come, what we have been asking for four days. we have had fema going door to door, we have a strategy meeting with the secretary just hours ago, talking about things we felt were falling through the cracks, things in the gap. but what about elderly people not in the catastrophe zone but have no power. they have been in their house for four or five days, nobody knows if they have gotten any food. i know the other elected officials on the island have been asking about coordinating. if they don't have food, we get it. things like that are finally getting coordinated.
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gerri: is red cross on the scene? speak of the national ceo came up to me and gave me a hug. they have been cominin since last night. i got him a place to stay and got them some hot food last night. there are many more of them today. in their defense, we called three days ago but a lot of them started driving from down south three days ago. we didn't understand what was taking so long but a lot of them were driving big rigs. gerri: a final question for you. i am sure you have heard mayor michael bloomberg has canceled new york city marathon, what do you make of that? >> that was absolutely the right call. the mayor shouldn't have allowed it to go forward push a lot of leadership in hearing the cry of the people and realizing it is not about showing how resilient
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we are. we have been through it all. but just agree it would have been a nightmare and shifting resources away from the people that literally the death toll is still going up and the crisis in full swing although the calgary is here, we still need a lot, is just now the resources are here and have to be allocated correctly. still a lot of people suffering and we have to do whatever we can to stop the suffering. a marathon would not have helped with that. gerri: the mayor made the comparison to 9/11 and said we did the marathon after that. that was six weeks, this is less than six days this time around. can you compare the two? it is different, right? speaker you cannot compare them, it is apples and oranges, the reality is we are still in reality mode. i am fearing in basements we haven't been to yet, it will still be bodies to recover, they
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haven't even had a chance to start morning. we're in the heart of a crisis here. gerri: thank you. the battle over who is better able to handle a crisis like hurricane sandy, some say proof big government is the only solution, but is that true? i will break that down next.
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gerri: does mitt romney wants to get the federal government out of the business of responding to natural disasters? >> there is a pressing question to be asked. what a romney presidency not have the federal government involved in this response? would the romney presidency not have the federal government do with the federal government is doing right now? would a presiden president romnd
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of fema like he said would be the right thing to do? gerri: is the criticism justified? first off understand is no point in that debate did ronnie ever say fema should be shut down. search the archives, my friend. it doesn't exist. what he does say i if the state can do a better job in some of the roles the federal government plays. he does not mention fema, but i'm going to. yesterday we talked about the federal emergency response administration missteps in the past, the slow response to hurricane katrina, the formaldehyde ligand trailers purchased for katrina victims to live in. and now it is becoming more and more clear hurricane sandy may well be another example of the government blowing it. it's a staten island resident had a same complaints residents of new orleans had seven years ago. where is fema when we need them. other problems that liberal
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bureaucracy huggers like to ignore. according to a new analysis from the heritage foundation, fema dollars after all taxpayer dollars look more and more like a goody bag, honeypot for presidents to raise. think of them as a political porkbarrel spending agency because that is unfortunately what it has become. the disaster dlarations are on the rise. reagan had 28 per year on average. under nine under bill clinton. obama, 153. he takes the cake. heritage foundation rates to put this in perspective in somewhere in america in 2011 disaster occurred every day and a half. so strong it required the intervention of the federal government because each of these disasters overwhelm the state and the local government. don't misunderstand me, there should not be any federal
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response to disasters, but the current system is broken. let's at least fess up to that. if you want a better example, look at home depot. they met a full week before the storm to move high demand items like generators, supply wood, bleach from stores outside the storm's path to the stars inside the ph. by the friday before the storm 350 home depot tickets were deployed to a command center at the company's atlanta headquarters to coordinate response. 350 folks. a conference room outfitted with tvs monitoring local and national newscast gave company managers up-to-date. home depot, organized, planning ahead. two weeks after home depot started the planning and nearly a week after the actual storm took place residents of staten island, new jersey, long island are still asking where is the help from the federal government? people missing, homes destroyed, gas shortages abound, 3 million
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residents still without power. he had it wrong, so maybe what she fears most would be right. responding to disasters would be better handled by states and yes, my friend, private businesses. that's what i think, now he wants to know what you think. who is better prepared to handle sandy, fema or home depot? log onto gerriwillis.com and i will share the results at the end of tonight's show. in the final jobs report before election day is out, what do the numbers really say about the unemployment crisis innthis country? answers next. @a
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gerri: coming up the job right picks up as people return to the workforce.
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gerri: unemployment up is always hiring. 171,000 jobs added to the jobless rate picking up to 7.9% because more people are going on the job hunt. here to break it down, senior research fellow at george mason university and former commissioner of the bureau of labor statistics, jason shanker, chief economist for procedure economics. good news or bad? >> i think it was a good report. we saw an increase in the number of jobs, much more than expected. smith and upward roguish and the last couple of months. the market did not interpret it that way. in general it shows the trend of
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modest improvements in u.s. economic growth is continuing. gerri: what did you make of the report? speak i think modest growth is the right word. one of the things we have to remember is we have a long way to go to get back a good labor market. right now we're probably about 10 million jobs short because of job loss and population growth. at this rate that would literally take us about 10 years to get 2 million jobs back. it is way too slow to consider this good and strong. gerri: i had read if we continued at this level it would take nine to 10 years to get back to full employment. we have a long, long way to go. jason, we look at this did you see any good news in this report, any silver lining? >> i think the good news is
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directionally the job increases are moving in the right direction. also if you look at temporary workers the number was negative last month, this number was positive and actually recoup the losses last month so that is important because that is indicative of future trends of hiring. it is if you want to see great reports, we will not see it. if you want to be happy, lower your expectations a little bit. gerri: really? you are breaking my heart here. should we lower our expectations? i guess the real question jason is alluding to, is this some sort of fundamental shift in america that america has to save the headwinds for america, have to be satisfied with less, grow more slowly, do you agree with that thesis? >> no, absolutely not. this is job growth, a walking
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pace. then a marathon to run to get back a well functioning labor market and i don't think we aree going to see job growth continue for long. we need an acceleration of job growth to get back. >> gerri, i would say we don't have to be satisfied with weakness and that's what we should accept. the truth is the corporations, the small businesses, large businesses are all very nervous and that uncertainty is keeping us from making more hiring and that is holding us back. gerri: people are very nervous indeed. so many things up in the air, the election, the fiscal cliff, don't know what your reality will be. thank you so much for coming on tonight, really appreciate both of your time. thank you. >> gooto be with you. gerri: when we come back, no matter how you look at the jobs numbers they will likely shape the closing arguments of the
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campaign. more next after the break.
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gerri: with four days to go until election day, the last jobs report is in, we have been waiting for it. president obama and mitt romney are using it to make their closing arguments but which one will voters believe one ahea whd to the polls? former economic advisor to george h. w. bush and karen, an advisor to president obama and former ambassador to the organization of economic cooperation and development. welcome to you both. with this move people who are on the fence? >> no. anybody on the fence understands the u.s. economy is weak. sure, you can say 7.9% unemployment is an improvement. i can't even say that is an improvement.
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the obama administration pledged they would drop down upon the great 5.4%. that certainly didn't happen. i'm curious as voters look at the newspapers tomorrow will the newspapers tell the truth that in this report touted as being positive wages went down. hourly earnings went down, hours worked went down. this is really a sad commentary if we have to interpret this somehow positively. gerri: clearly we have a long ways to go, wants you to hear something the president said today on the campaign trail and respond. here is the president. >> 2008 we were in the middle of two wars. today our businesses have created nearly five and a half million new jobs and this morning we learned the companies hired more workers in october than any timm in the past eight months. gerri: you listen to that, he
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seems very proud of his record but the reality is we have 7.9% unemployment higher than a month ago. how do you respond? >> we have had 32 straight months of job growth and it is not hollowed, it is a strong growth to a can affect the outcf the worst economic crisis since the great depression. my favorite number is automotive parts and motor vehicle production is at an all-time high. manufacturing is up. consumer confidence at a five-year high.74p this is a really strong recovery. really. gerri: what are the numbers you see? >> have not heard president
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obama say it is strong. we've lost jobs, manufacturing alone up two-thirds of the jobs created are jobs that are low-wage jobs, about 60% are for older people, for a president who doesn't like wal-mart very much sounds like president obama is creating a lot of jobs for wal-mart readers. wages went down, hours worked went down. i don't know what talking points you're working from. gerri: i think there is widespread frustration with how the economy is growing. why aren't we getting a more robust expansion especially when it comes to jobs? i heard if we continue to add jobs month by month like we did this month it would take us nine to 10 years to get back to full employment. >> i would not believe all of those numbers.
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what you're seeing right now is job growth three times what it was at this point in the 2001 recovery. what you're seeing right now is 32 straight months of job growth. growth model a financial crisis. this is not an ordinary recession. this is the worst crisis and we are doing extremely well. gerri: i feel confident in the numbers i presented. i think karen is making the point we have had gdp in positive territory for a while. it is not like it is negative, so why are you complaining? >> we are barely above stall speed. weaker than it was last year. weakewe could than a year befor. this is not a strong economic recovery.
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the last four quarters stronger than the fourth quarter before that and they were stronger than the bush recovery. economist across-the-board for this economy is growing. gerri: last word. >> let's be honest, but the talking points aside. american people know this economy is notstrong. most americans believe this country is going in the wrong direction. those polls are undeniable. let's hope we can turn this around. gerri: thanks to you both for coming on, really appreciate your time. i think there is something the n the unemployment report for everybody. thank you. when we come back as many families worry about putting their lives back together, one thing you will likely not have to deal with. and whomever gets reelected or elected on tuesday will have a lot on his plate. look at the first 100 days in what they might hold coming up
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next. john is 42. mortgage. married. two great kids. he wants to protect his family with a $500,000 term life insurance policy. what do you think it'll cost him? a hundred dollars a month? sixty? forty? actually none of the above. john can get a $500,000 policy -from a highly rated insurer - for unr $25 a month. his secret? selectquote. selectquote is impartial. they'll search the pick of insurers like these to
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give you a choice of your best prices. selectquote has great savings on term life for women, too. john's wife carrie, can get a $500,000 policy for under $16 a month. selectquote has helped make term life insurance affordable for hundreds of thousands of people since 1985. how about you? justall this number or visit selectquote dot com.
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gerri: 100 days, whether you're leading the boardroom or a nation, the timeframe is critical to success or failure of a new job.
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a look at your first 100 days in new executive job powerful first step from the path to greatness. thank you fo coming in. this is such a great conversation. not as look forward to the presidential election but also for executives who might be starting a new job. why are those 101st days so important? >> i would like to talk about one of my heroes. james mcgregor burns wrote a book about fdr called the lion and the fox. private convsation with me he said robert, it is very easy to get elected if you have enough resources but it is extremely difficult to govern. whatever it is that got you here, whatever got you elected will not get you there and can lead to some listed the victory. so while it takes mastering the art of war to get elected, it
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takes master the art of collective calibration for the starts the first 100 days. gerri: i want to get to your list, your guide to the first 100 days. the talk won't have a story ready, what does that mean? >> whenever you're elected, the expectations are high. you have to be ready when the story is starting day one that says exactly how you are going to move the country or move the organization from here to there. it should be a transformation story. obama talked about change we can believe in and he tried to prove purvey the story. he was derailed by the midterm elections. gerri: had to have people who will help you make your case next year, right?
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>> if you want to go for the impossible future you can't do it with the class or c. class players. you need the "a-team." and that dealing with chronic plays and they hav had to reduce their mission. gerri: what do you mean by impossible future? >> mostly what you see with ceos and presidents sitting predicable goals. goals that are more or less a different version of the status quo. in impossible future is a goal that is not predictable or likely but when you have to charge you take a stand for. for example an impossible future in the first 100 days whether it is president obama or president romney after the election might be take a stand for formal employment in america. nobody actually knows how to achieve that, but once we stand for that, we start moving into that future, we know the what
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but we don't know the how, we discovered the how in the process of going for it. gerri: breakthrough projects and drive the bottom line. robert, thank you for coming in tonight, it is a fascinating idea and not just presidents but executives need to listen to you. thank you.
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gerri: as the debate over the marathon and the cleanup of staten island rages on, so do tempers at gas stations across the region. drivers waiting in line miles long for hours at a time even
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waiting with no guarantee. one man in the bronx waited threhours only to find out the station ran out of gas when it was almost his turn. aaa says two-thirds of gas stations in new jersey, long island and suburban new york are running on empty. new york governor andrew cuomo along with homelanddsecurity secretary janet napolitano are waiving requirements prevent prg fuel tankers from transporting oil into the area and he has a message. >> on the fuel situation there is no reason to panic, no reason for anxiety. we understand why there was a shortage for very definable reasons, we also understand why it is going to be better and it is going to be better in the near future. gerri: went on to say they're making progress but maybe a little too little too late as people are already seeing gas prices jump in new york and new jersey.
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and banking after the storm, hundreds of banks shut down and more atms out of service, countless folks facing a cash shortage struggling to buy the bare necessities that cash only vendors. joining me now with more. good to have you back on the show. tell us what banks are doing right now because i'm getting e-mails from american express and everybody else saying they want to help me out because i liven the storm region. what are they offering customers? >> thank you so much for having me. they're offering a few things. they are waiving a lot of late fees, a lot of withdrawal fees if you end up using an atm that is not your banks atm, they will wave those fees as well. they're also doing a lot of things behind th snes. our best advice is to ask what they can do to help you. don't jeopardize your security
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and just know that everybody is aware of the situation and everything would work out, nobody should stress out if you are late on a payment. gerri: here are some of the banks waving atm fees. jpmorgan, wells fargo, citigroup on a case-by-case basis. do you think there are alternative places people can get cash? par thpart of the problem is sof these banks don't have electricity so you can't use your atm card. >> that is exactly right. i think the best advice is atms are in restaurants, lots of different public locations and i think it would be the best advice in order to actually get them, to have some friends or family is to really look around and go to any atm that you can get your hands on and ask them
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to waive the fee. gerri: let's get to some of your tips. don't risk safety for cost, go to the closest atm, right? >> again if you are a couple of days late, they will wave the late fees or finance charges, so don't do anything that will affect your safety. gerri: avoid short-term loans, right? >> that is right. a lot of banks are offering short-term loans to people that are affected that obviously pay their loans that people can get their hands on,ut those are unfortunately very expensive and our best advice is to ask for a credit line increase from your bank, lots of banks are doing that on your existing credit
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cards rather than getting a short-term loan that is much more expensive than your credit card. gerri: don't rule out investments, seek low-cost options. >> what we were very happy to see was a lot of banks have waived early withdrawal fees from certificate deposit accounts. it is an option that can be very handy for lots of people accessing their cd. gerri: thank you for coming on, we appreciate your time. >> thank you for having me. gerri: we will be right back with my two cents more. and who is more prepared to handle sandy, fema or home depot?
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john is 42. mortgage. married. two great kids. he wants to protect his family with a $500,000 term life insurance policy. what do you think it'll cost him? a hundred dollars a month? sixty? forty? actually none of the a.
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john can get a $500,000 policy -from a highly rated insurer - for under $25 a month. his secret? selectquote. selectquote is impartial. they'll search the pick of insurers like these to give you a choice your best prices. selectquote has great savings on term life for women, too. under $16 a month. selectquote has helped make term life insurance affordable for hundreds of thousands of people since 1985. how about you? just call this number or visit selectquote dot com.
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>> we talked earlier about how
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the private sector seems better equipped to deal with disasters than the government. what do you think? who is better prepared? fema or home depot? here is what you're telling. home depot. people there actually know what they're doing and are qualified to do their job. thank you. tony agrees. home depot. there has been another demonstration of the failure of big government. we ask you this on the gerriwillis.com. 3 percent said fema. [laughter] 97 percent said home depot. log onto gerriwillis.com for our on-line question every weekday. finally, while most of you feel home depot and other businesses were more prepared to handle sandy, they are also stepping up to handle the aftermath. i'm not just talking about giving money. duracell is giving power, sending in trucks with phone charging stations and computers with internet access so people can contact their family and friends. same with comcast and giving complementary access to wi-fi networks through wednesday. as we mentioned, wells fargo,
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bank of america, a city bank are waving at&t's. general motors giving the american red cross 50 chevy pickup trucks to help the recovery effort as well as a quarter of a million dollars. most but not all the gems in the area are offering free showers. new york sports club is one of them, but equinoxes tightening restrictions to make sure people are not getting in for free. not everybody is getting in the spirit of helping there fellow man. just some examples with all the tragedy and destruction around. a lot to complain about, but also lots of people in this area and members of the business community to be proud of. that is my "2 cents more." coming up monday, guess what? is a big surprise. we will be in boston, mitt romney's he state of massachusetts. the -- "th willis report" will be live. that is it for tonight. thank you for joining us. don't forget to record the show if you cannot catch us live. have a great weekend, and we
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will see you monday from boston. ♪ with the election on tuesday both campaigns seem nervous which means we have a nail-biter. is there anything the candidates can do now to win. i'll ask former presidential candidate pat buchanan, right here and right now. >> tom: thanks for joining us. here at the top of the stack. polls are split. some say obama wins, others are picking romney. at this point you might think everybody has made up their mind but have they? are there really undecided voters at this late date? has hurricane sandy chaed the dynamics of the contest. joining me now is former
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candidate and author of a suicide of a superpower, our friend pat by cannon. how can anybody -- pat buchanan. >> how can anyone still wonder who is to vote for? >> i don't know how they can the folks that probably voted for barack obama before and gotten emotional attachment are saying to themselves, he hasn't done that good of a job and wondering mitt romney is the guy to replace him. it's down to very few folks. although in some states, swing states, 46-46 polls which tell me that a poll like that would ll me that mitt romney is in good shape because they made up their mind about the president which they know much better. >> tom: how about the conservatives? when the debates were on with the republicans and that was the big gripe about romney, conservatives weren't going to get on board.
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have they? >> you know, tom, that is good question. early on they were not. i have conservative friends and i'm not voting for homicidal. i'm not voting for this fellow or that fellow. as the campaign has gone on and on, the conservatives and republicans have come home as much as i've seen and almost any election in my lifetime. it's because the realization in their hearts that we really can't go through four more years what we've gone through the last two years. secondly i think they think this is the last chance to turn it around for their country. i think the conservatives and the republicans are as solid as they've been. they were not in the summer. they were not in the spring. they are, i believe, in the fall. >> tom: you've got so many elections that you've been through. the ones you ran in, all the white houses you worked for. let me bring you to 1980. there was jimmy carter was
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ahead. polls said carter was going to win. i livived on the west coast at that time. i remember driving home from work, the polls were still open on the west coast and carter had threw in the towel he was beaten so badly? >> he lost 44 states. i was so nervous that election year. i was one of ones saying, governor reagan, you got to put gerald ford on the ticket to reassure the country. not until that batd debated came up was i pretty sure that reagan was going to take it over the top. i'll tell you that day and that next morning when i went into where i broadcast on radio. we were astonished, 44-6. everybody was marose over the nbc radio station. >> did you see another 1980 in the horizon? >> i don't think it's a 1980 reagan won by ten points. i do think there is a real
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possibility that the folks -- we go back to 46-46, a real possibility folks are going to say, we got to try something new. we can't go with what we're going with the last four years. america can do better. he has done great in the debates. tough character. i think we're going to go with him. there is a possibility you could get a 52-49, 52-48 election on romney's side. i think that is about as far as i think it could go on either side. i would guess as of now, tom, if i had to bet, i would bet romney wins the popular vote and comes down to the electoral vote in ohio, iowa and colorado. next question, are we going to have another 2000, one person wins the popular and another one wins the electoral? >> i recall 2000 very well as
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reform candidate that ran very well in palm beach county. i think we could go down to that. we could in the state of ohio. think romney has to win one other state, obviously, florida, north carolina and virginia and ohio. one other state after that. i do believe we could go down right to t the final hours and o on into the early morning. another kennedy nixon race and go in the next morning. i recall the 1968 campaign, i was with richard nixon against hubert humphrey. we were at the waldorf as for yeah and we were calling in mike walas get him to throw in his votes so to make sure we could win illinois. it could go down like that. >> tom: i'm going to ask everybody today. the polls are split. there is a lot of polling
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operations out there that is saying, obama has a lot of battleground states that brings up the electoral college problem again. who do you believe. how do you measure the polls? >> i have listened to both arguments. i have listened the arguments of karl rove that i think is fairly sper sways i have if you mr. obama early voting in ohio. she running ahead but he running something like 180,000 votes behind what he did the last time out and republicans are running 70,000 ahead. that is 250,000 votes that would make up the difference that was obama's victory. i think both sides are probably correct. i don't think some of these pollsters are fixing the polls, but i do believe are weights in terms of what happened in 2008 which was an aberrational year.
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it looked to me mike romney was closing deal in florida and north carolina before the hurricane and beginning to close in virginia. ohio was still the difficult uphill battle. that may be the case right now. i think there may be honesty on both sides. we'll find out because there is a profound disagreement. >> you bring up the hurricane. 21 states have been impacted by sandy. it reminds me of a tennis match where there is a rain delay. when they come back out to the court, the momentum shifts. has that happed? >> i use another metaphor, tom, it's indianapolis. when i was kid they had big crashes on the indianapolis speedway during the 500. they put the yellow flag out. the yellow flag means everybody stays in the same position and keep going around the track until it is lifted until they can go back to racing again. often the individual that had
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the momentum or one was head can drop behind and one was behind may get all set up and move ahead. it's like you mentioned with the tennis match. there is a possibility momomentm could have been halted. president obama looks better walking on the jersey shore than he did yelling about romnesia that i think was losing him the election. if the storm had not interrupted this election, barack obama would be a one-term president. he may still be a one-term president. in it had not been for that storm, i think he would have lost because i think romney was slowly moving ahead in the battleground states. look at the gallup poll, you can't win by five points nationally without winning the electoral college.
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>> tom: very interesting. pat, thank you very much zblool. >> tom: still to come. has extensive media coverage on huicane sandy weakened his moment and obama look more presidential. tucker carlson and fred barnes weigh in. then will obamacare contraception mandate affect the catholic vote. does politics belong in the pulpit? plus mitt romney has closed president obama's lead with women voters? what thiangd chair minds? that is coming occupant tom sullivan show. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] they are a glowing example of what it means to be the best. and at this special time of year, they shine even brighter. come to the winter event and get the mercedes-benz you've always wished for, now for an exceptional price. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho!
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>> tom: days before the presidential election, polls are all over the place. which polls can we trust. joining me is fred barnes and cofounder of daily caller, tucker carlson. let's start with you, fred. it depends on which poll you
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read determines who is going to win. who is going to win this thing? >> i think romney is going to win by how much i don't know. there are other things in polls. there are couple models done by gallup that is based on a poll but the intensity of the voters and who might turn out and how old they are and how many seniors are going to vote. both of those, gallup says that the turnout, electorate on november 6th will republicans plus three. in other words, 3 percentage points more republicans than democrats. battleground poll has plus five more republicans than democrats. i take those very seriously. so, based on those, i'm predicting romney. >> tom: tucker, are you calling it for romneynd if so, what about all these polls that say otherwise? >> i think fred is right. it depends how you read the polls.
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polls are snapshots of a moment. how are people responding to the pollster. there are all supports of numbers in the polls that get less attention that are more revealing i would point to. to give you an example, in the state of virginia, romney has a 21-point advantage among independents. the intensity gap is huge. it favors the republicans. the democrat party has not been able to get seniors away from romney. so there is a lot that is pretty posite within these polls and points to romney's momentum. >> tom: fred, if this true and all the polls and information you talked about, we hear about the ground game. i know you know the ground game and all political pundits talk about it. i don't think a lot of audience understands what is the ground game and who has the advantage. both campaigns have good ground games this year?
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>> obama has a better ground game. what it means you get out your vote. the people that are going to vote for your candidate, you make sure they go to the polls. obama had a great onen 2008. he has very good one now but romney has something that actually puts his candidacy ground game wise equal with obama, that is there are other groups that are doing a tremendous amount of get out the vote effort. they are making phone calls. they are going door to door. just in a day, the americans for prosperity an independent group, very conservative has been making two million calls and visiting 50,000 homes. with the addition with these other groups, romney can match obama's. >> tom: what about the weather. republicans vote no matter what. democrats, it's got to be a nice day. true? >> it is factually true that the democratic coalition is
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compromed that have historically voted in low numbers, low income votes and young voters don't vote a lot. republican coalition is mainstay voters over 65. you can't stop them from voting. fred is right. obama ground game is more elaborate than the romney ground game. he has hundreds of state offices across the country. the democrats need that to push their voters to go to the polls and republicans don't. so the evaporating is always to the republicans in turnout. let's talk about this early voting. my view of the early voting i don't like it. i don't like the idea this kind of extended thing out there, you can send in absentee ballot and show up. how do you keep track of all this. is this going to lead to voter fraud or going to be advantage obama. >> colorado mails out ballots to every voter.
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i think they vote by mail. what is wrong with the idea that is in the constitution of showing up on election day? first tuesday after the first monday, but anyway, so far i think nearly 20% of the voters have already voted in this early voting. here is what we know, obama does better but he is not doing nearly as well in early voting as he did in getting that he did in 2008. romney is doing a lot better than mccain did in 2008. so, gallup has a poll showing romney winning the early voting by five pnts. romney, think on this, republicans have pretty much caught up. >> tom: are you sure you are calling it for romney? you are making a strong argument about people showing up early, fred? >> republicans aren't afraid to
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go out to the polls on election day, november 6th for all the reasons tucker said. look, getting out an early vote isn't you can come as close to matching it. i think romney has done that. then there is the numb that the romney vers have an advantage on which will get them out on election day. >> that was huge in 2008 but not necessarily now. are we going to have a late nighter, tucker, or is this going to be 1980 where we know pretty early? >> anybody who deterred from voting by rain, shouldn't be voting in the first place. srl, we shouldn't prevent those people by law, i don't want you choose meig government. i hope it rains. it will weed out the fools. i'm not going to make a prediction as to the eventual outcome because i will be held canable and i didn't go to into
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journalism to be held accountable. [ laughter ] >> tom: you are going to be up late or ready to go to bed on time? >> i think we're going to be waiting to see how colorado goes. that is state that obama won by nine points in 2008. polls show it tied and romney has the slight mislead and polls showing obama with a slight lead. i suspect colorado is going for romney but certainly not in the bag. what is it mountain time? >> tom: and then the battle with pacific time so you got two battleground states on the western part of the country. >> if there is a blizzard which tucker would really love, nobody will show up and we'll know early. >> tom: fred and tucker, thank you very much. >> up next, catholic church is officially against obamacare contraception mandate. will the faithful follow suit
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and give their vote to romney. president obama's lead with women voters is 50/50 split with romney. what closed the [ female announcer ] e-trade was founded on the simple belief that bringing you better technology helps make you a better investor. with our revolutionary e-trade 360 dashboard you see exactly where your money is and what it's doing live. our e-trade pro platform offers powerful functionality that's still so usable you'll actually use it. and our mobile apps are the ultimate in wherever whenever investing. no matter what kind of investor you are, you'll find the technology to help you become a better one at e-trade.
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>>. >> tom: catholic church and other denomination are against
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the conception mandate and obama's plan because it violates the right to practice their religion. they are suing the government over it. will their congregations tak that to heart and vote for romney? should religious leaders bring politics to the pulpirt? joining me is father jonathan morris and rabbi joseph petaknak. we''e not going to hear this until well after the election. >> there are dozens of lawsuits against the federal government. not only by catholic organizations, certainly from major catholic organizations like notre dame university, archdiocese of new york but also evangelical and non-christian organizations, what they are doing here, violates a sacred tradition within the united states of america.
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that is the government protects religious organizations, but then does not get involved in their internal affairs this is a clear violation. >> tom: let me ask you, rabbi, this brings up the question do you get involved -- if you don't want the govern government in your religion, can you get your religion involved in government. should politics be in the pulpit? >> we have seen an unhealthy development, they are too partisan in the pulpit. it helps define issues and then let people decide which candidate and which party brings them closer to the realization of those priorities. we shouldn't be in the business of endorsingandidates. i don't think we should be distributing campaign literature in in the houses of worship. beyond that, people come to a house of worship, people come to
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clergy for a host of reasons but i don't think they come to us for our political wisdom. what does religion have to say about the world and issues of the day and then they can decide on their own who is best suited to fulfill that list. >> if i jump in real quickly. i absolutely agree with you. we should not be endorsing candidates. i don't like the idea. i wouldn't allow in my church to passing out campaign literature. that said we do wanted only us on leaders in my opinion to be standing against moral evils. in 'my neighborhood and state or country, in which slavery still existed and being promoted by some candidate we would want our religious leaders to say that is wrong. that is not right. in this case and this health care mandate we have certainly not the same situation, but it's definitely a situation in which the government has chosen to say we are going to oblige to go
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against your conscience. we don't want that and stand up. >> tom: i appreciate your point very much. it's that ge about freedom to practice your religion in this country. >> that is where i would agree with the father. there is a clear line. we don't endorse candidates, however, there is a provision in the jewish faith where religion, the law of the land is the law we support. unless that law asks you requis you to violate the tenets of your faith. i understand the non-endorsement and i'm in favor of religion ougs leaders that speak clearly when the government is violating something which is precious to their particular faith. >> tom: let me change the topic a little bit and rabbi let me start with you. the question about the jewish vote in america. the majority democrat support
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from the jewish community. however, there is a lot of questions about the obama administration and their support. are they really supporters of israel. i have seen survey that has say among jewish voters the economy are still far above their concern aut our administration whichever president support israel, true or not true? >> you will get an answer yes, and no. in some places yes, in some places no. for many of place, israel is a priority. not that it is more important than the economy. we have a number of issues that are very important to us. israel is one of them. for others i suppose israel doesn't resonate in the sam strong fashion, but i don't think, i think this is what is becoming apparent. i don't think the democratic party should take the view wish vote for granted and we have a lock on that vote. people are reassess and reconsidering what is important tohem and making decisions
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accordingly. >> tom: there was talk about parishes some priests would get out and say, hey, this is how we want you to go vote. do you think it will happen from different parishes? >> no, but certain throughout the country they will have leaders stand up and say there are certain non-negotiable issues. when the government violates these issues or a platform violates these those issues,f you voting for those platforms or candidates you are participating in a moral evil. i don't think you're going to have priests and certainly have evangelical pastors because they have a tradition of doing that endorsing candidates. we do not do that in the catholic church. let's bring it down to the financial issues. sometimes we can make this division between the moral issues and fincial issues. sometimes we would vote for the financial issues over those moral issues in the indication of israel.
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i believe, too, that the financial issue there are also moral issues. if we have a government, for example, that is beginning to take over more and more responsibility for our lives, stepping in and saying, we're going to make more and more people dependent upon our federal government, that is something that is not good for the moral fabric of our company. financial issues or even the debt, $16 trillion of debt is that a financial issue? i'm saying, yes, it is a financial issue or moral issue that should be taken into consideration and very seriously. it's interesting to see in this country, i'm sound go like grandpa here -- but that is where we went to places of worship and family and friends to take care of each other before the government. that didn't reduce your responsibility or your work or efforts you need to put into it in the religious community. >> i d't think in the faith communities are saying to the government, do you it, we don't do anything.
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i think there is recognition we do as much as we can. that doesn't mean we can do everything. there are times when turn to the government to assume various responsibilities. there is going to be relationship the question remains where do we draw boundaries, where do we say government, you can't come here? we in the religious community is doing much to help one another but we can't do it all. >> tom: all right, gentlemen thank you both very much. >> still ahead, now that the women's vote is all tied up, is it the men's vote that will decide the presidential election? hurricane sandy has left the northeast in shambles and many people don't have transportation and communication. and communication. why are we so [ male announcer ] you are business pro.
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>>. >> tom: after president obama enjoyed a wide lead with female voters, women's vote is now 50/50. some say the gender gap in the presidential race is among the white male vot who should the candidates be more worried about. joining me now is author of what is the bleep just happened. monica crowley and jehmu greene. let me start with you. what happened? the president was way ahead and now it's even? >> i would actually disagree
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with that a bit. i do think the president is still ahead with women. it's poll to poll but at the end of the day we're seeing, it's probable a repeat of the gender gap that democratic candidates have enjoyed since 1984 or so. what this comes down to i think for women voters on tuesday is going to be which candidatehey trust the most. women can see through a lot of things that men don't necessarily see through. i think they have seen governor romney shift his position so many times, most recently seen him just blatantly lying about the auto industry and chrysler moving jobs to china. that isot a president that women voters are going to be comfortable with. so on the issue of trust, when women go into polling booth, they are going to check off barack obama's name. >> tom: i have just taken a wild guess.
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you may have a different opinion? >> i think it's really important to take a look at the breakdown among women. governor romney has a double-digit lead consistently among married women. single women barack obama enjoyed a slight edge. it's a lot less this time. there has been a true generation gap is. >> tom: what about the soccer moms? >> they are falling them in line. they are falling in line for governor romney. one of ways you see such an evaporation of the gender gap. both are responsible by barack obama and his campaign team both have failed and backfired for them. number one, they spent many months and about hundred million dollars in a negative ad campaign trying to painted governor romney as evil, greedy capitalist. first debate came along, women
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as well as men that was not true by governor romney. they thought a brilliant and responsible, thoughtful gay, that is not jibing with what i've been seeing. democrats spent a lot of money and time perpetuating this bogus war on women. somehow the republicans were waging war on women on birth control. most women can see right through that. they can absolutely see through that. >> tom: that is the thing, how some of your lady parts but jobs and economy rank much higher, female, male it doesn't matter? >> i think tom, it's a concern over women's health security. in the closing weeks of the
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campaign that concern has come up again when you look at the candidate for senate, indiana, richard murdoch, when he says a child of rape is a gift from god and governor romney doee not go after him and repudiate those statements. that is concern for women. think more importantly if governor romney saying on day one he is going to basically make women areexisting condition. people forget before obamacare, if you were a woman, insurance companies would charge you higher premiums because you are a woman. being pregnant is a preexisting condition. listen. >> tom: one of the things, women use doctors more than men, they always have.
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in order to do that. most women understand that. tom to your point. when we talk about social issues and traditionally, birth control and abortion and rape and they point out. those are issues. they are issues that are a luxury any good economy. we don't have a good economy. so for every american not just women and not just men because bu these are all issues. jobs and economy, the deficit and debt, i think that is what women are responding to.
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this effects everybody. it affects my father and everybody around me. it effects me. we right now have the highest level among women in the last 17 years. we have about a million fewer women than when barack obama became president. those are serious issues that resonated much more strongly with most women. >> tom: i agree. i agree that the high number of poverty, absolutely when they are paying attention to that and they understand that if it wasn't for president obama, that without the policies that he supported making sure that we continued the payroll tax cut. making sure that unemployment benefits were extended, making sure that they had access to opportunity and resources if they were out of a job, people would be going hungry. >> tom: you have to acknowledge, you have to acknowledge -- there are women out there who look at
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this and say because of his policies, that is why there is so much unemployment. yes, some women blame him, some women glorify him or whatever you want to call it. let me ask you to monica's point. if young single women are for obama and married women are going for more for governor romney, do young single women vote? >> i think young single women will vote and especially looking at one of the debate questions, that governor romney awered about gun violence and about if we needed to take off ak-47s and assaulted weapons, he blamed it on single women. think that was something that many single women ere like, what. my 8-year-old child is not carrying an ak-47. why you blaming this situation on me. i think governor romney has stumbled when it comes to single women.
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he stumbled in the debate when he referred to possible candidates or senior positions in ma mass and he stumbled as a governor in massachusetts when the percentage of women in senior positions declined under his watch. he stumbled as a businessman when he couldn't find one woman who actually have as a partner in his company. >> he had a record number of women in his administration in massachusetts. look -- >> abortion for one second. there is a serious issues but we are fighting for the life of the country here. i don't care if you are women, we need jobs and that is what most voters and women and men care about. >> i'll ask you, monica. how are the young women going to vote? >> i do think they are going to vote. i think she is correct in saying that barack obama has a slight
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lead among single women but that is largely going to be all set by the amount of married women who is going for mitt romney. to the number of women is split 5050 and that means big trouble for barack obama. >> tom: ladies, thank you very much. >> coming up, hurricane sandy is taught us a huge lesson but we are not ready for natural disasters. what would happen during a terrorist cyber attack? and ubs planning to cut 10,000 jobs. would more banks haae to do the same.@@
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i'm telling people we are suffering from inconvenience. a lot of trees down. none hit the home my family was
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safe but no power. we never imagined we would be in a situation more than a day. the storm was stow so extensive. people criticize for overhyping the media but i think the media was spot on on getting the word out how bad stand did i. >> tom: this brings up the question. cyber terrorists are watching all of this. they are licking their chops. look what we can do. we can shut down the country when they lose power? >> there is no question about it. the thing that worries me. there was an article my weeks in the paper there were keys circulating on the internet that you could shut down any elevator or turn off certain parts of power grid. terrorists would love to do nothing more than to disrupt financial sectors in the country. it. only do are we not ready for but the fact we can't deal with it several days after the fact. >> you are making a total false
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comparison here. we ra we're ready for this natural disaster. it's been tremendously disastrous, modern technology has weathered the storm so to speak. to laurie's pointed it's a inconvenience. in pre-industrial america or in the haiti or honduras you would have ten thousand people. you are worried about a cyber attack. we can't prepare for a natural disaster. but any attack would come from a known enemy that is islam we aren't sitting deduction like another natural disaster. >> ubs says they are going to cut up to 10,000 jobs. the reason is because of the requirement that have been put on banks for more capital and more rules. whether it's basil 3 or dodd-frank. ron, let's start with you? >> i think they will. i think this is really the
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danger you run when you pass legislation and rush it through congress. we don't have any understanding of the financial implications of it. i think ubs could be the tip of the spear here. i think there are a lot of smaller banks as well as those that want to do usiness with us is it really competitive for us to do business in united states or do we cut our losses. ubs a beginning indicator of what dodd-frank and what other regulatory matters have done to the industry. jonathan. >> tom: jonathan are you going to benefit from this you are not a big international bank. you are a hedge fund. we are all suffering from it. regulations are destructive. he hits the nail on the head. dodd-frank which was passed in response to a financial crisis has had a tremendously disruptive impact on it. thousands and thousands of jobs lost. thousands and thousands of productive people not working in this economy.
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this administration has made financial industry a scapegoat for economic collapse. you are seeing the result in more and more job losses. >> tom: there are a lot of people that don't like wall street banks and they are going tough beans to them? >> i have to say my first reaction banks huge hires, they provide important services economically. i think we have been watching a changing landscape since the financial crisis since 2008. in my view i think this is more of the same. top reserve requirents, 10% and stricter here in u.s. and great britain. there is time for the banks to restructure 4-2019 effects. >> but it's slower and there is time. and the entire world is dealing with having to do cost cutting and pare bac jobs. it's tough and not a great situation. but the unemployment crisis is a
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crisis across the board. it's the financial industries we are talking about but it's industry wide. >> if this administration has it's a way getting a loan is same as going to the dmv. if you enjoy that now. wait until 2019 or wait until more regulations take old. >> here we are couple days away from the election. let's go around the table and find out, you've got two questions for you all. rob, we'll start with you. you are capital you have politics surrounding you. who will win the popular vote and who will win the electoral vote? >> in my view, actually i think governor romney is going to win both. if you look at some of the polls we have seen, indicating the president is neck and neck or slightly behind governor romney. you have not had an incumbent president of the united states we re-elected with the numbers under 50%. looking at the battleground states i don't see it for
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president obama or the electoral college? >> research showed that the non-swing states the popular vote, how the states where obama lost in 2008 he is actually losing by a greater percentage this time around. this could be really telling. i agree with ron. i think popular and electoral college will go to romney. >> i had i look a some of the statistics for real money futures market on events like the election. they have the president out in front. i think unfortunately where romney has the vote. he hasn't made the moral cases the president has. romney picks up individual lism and capitalism works. >> go back to that. i want you to tell the audience. say that, too. intrade groups and so forth that are betting on the outcome the president has it. right? >> it's a close race obviously.
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we' know once the election rolls around. a lot of those other money markets are putting the election in the president's favor. turnout is going to be everything in this election. >> it's a late night for all of us on tuesday. thank you all. thanks, tom. [ male announcer ] this is the age of knowing what you're made of. why let erectile dysfunction get in your way? talk to your doctor about viagra. ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. side effects include headache, flushing, upset stomach, and abnormal vision. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you experience a sudden decrease or loss in vision or hearing. this is the age of taking action. viagra. talk to your doctor.
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>>. >> tom: time to spin the wheel, every week we receive tons of your messages on our facebook, twitter, e-mail and radio show comment line and play this part of the program where your voice can be heard. we call it comment roulette. let's spin the wheel. let's start off with a message via facebook, tom says sandy proves our country isn't raid for a disaster. he writes, there is too much centralized government controlling everything. returning the job to the states and local county government. i couldn't agree with you more on that one. let's spin the wheel we have a message from twitter. despite all devastation, she brought, they say sandy may
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prove to be a stimulus. since the federal government can't create jobs, mother nature decided she needed to step in and, boy, did she ever step in. that is true. there is a than old economic theory called the broken window theory but basically says if you have to repair your window is money you would have used to go out and have dinner. it doesn't advance the economy. >> time to tap the radio show comment line. this caller said did you hear what president obama said in rolling stone. sound likes my grandpa. this caller says you got a double standard when it comes to romney's tax returns.
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>> tom: no, donald trump offered to president obama but that doesn't mean that he took him up on it. does it? he is not going to. this caller doesn't buy into the presidential likeability factor? >> i don't want to be any president's friend. i want this them to be elected to fix the problems in this country. >> tom: i with you. that not going to decide a vote. i just wanted the president to do the job. this caller, really upset about the president's handling of benghazi. >> tom: i kind of like that one. thanks to everybody that contacted the show this week. keep your comments coming in. we're open for business 24 hours a day. check out our facebook page,
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it's on facebook page/tom sullivan show and then see the blue bird, twitter address s sullivan radio. all the ways to contact us on the web is main web page which is tomsullivan.com. make sure to tune in the radio show, we're on fox news talk and many of your local radio stations around the country. it's every weekday from 3:00 to 6:00 eastern. we'll have another great tv show for you next week on f follow the wings. i just want to give her everything. [ whistles ] three words dad,
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